Written by Commander Mike Lumpkin

The likely impeachment of President Pervez Musharraf creates an air of uncertainty and real diplomatic challenges for US policies in the region. If the Bush Administration fails to fully grasp the significance of this event and rushes to failure, yet one more time, the challenge will only be exacerbated. Either way, the next Administration is destined to inherit yet another serious challenge in the field of foreign relations.

It is tough going for politicians in Pakistan’s neck of the woods. The two primary goals of any Pakistani politician are 1) stay in power, and 2) stay alive…not necessarily in that order. President Musharraf is slowly failing the first one and Benazir Bhutto failed the second. In the event that Musharraf attempts to circumvent the impeachment by dismissing the Parliament, a whole new set of challenges present themselves. Either way, if our nation’s response is not skillfully executed, there may very well be immediate and direct negative consequences on US national security.

Despite a huge US investment of over $5 billion in Pakistan since 9/11, Musharraf’s fall from power has been largely due to his close relationship with the Bush Administration, Bush’s dysfunctional policies in Afghanistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan. Internal political pressure on Musharraf hit hard earlier this year when he was forced to relinquish direct control of Pakistan’s military and the opposition party was voted into legislative power. Alliance with the US and Bush’s foreign policy is not a recipe for political longevity in the Pakistan.

From all appearances, a diplomatic tightrope presents itself: formulate a comprehensive strategy in Afghanistan, stop insurgent cross-border attacks from the FATA into Afghanistan, and maintain the stability of nuclear-capable Pakistan and India. Making matters more precarious, we have to accomplish all of this without putting a US face on it. Keeping in mind the two primary goals of politicians in Pakistan, the next President will seek to distance themselves from our national policies especially with regard to Afghanistan. They will not follow Musharraf’s lead and will do whatever is necessary to distance themselves from Bush.

While NATO has been an important player in Afghanistan for some time now, its importance just increased exponentially. With this comes a whole new set of diplomatic challenges…

Are we safer without Musharraf in Pakistan? The answer: it depends. It depends on whether we finally develop cogent, long-term strategies or we continue to react without thought or moral clarity. The bottom line is that the choices our current Administration makes will determine the severity of the challenge our next Administration inherits.

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Michael D. Lumpkin is a a retired Navy SEAL Commander who served as the former Deputy Commander, Joint Special Operations Task Force-Arabian Peninsula for Operation Iraqi Freedom. Mike has deployed to Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, and the Philippines in support of our nation’s ongoing Global War on Terrorism.

Mike has a Master’s Degree in National Security Affairs and he is recognized by the Department of Defense as a specialist in both the Western Hemisphere and Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict. He is currently running for Congress in California’s 52nd District to replace retiring Congressman Duncan Hunter.